
As AT&T approaches the home stretch of their third year of iPhone exclusivity, the inevitable question arises: will the next iPhone be available on other networks? I’d wager it will. Sort of.
There are a lot of reasons to believe that AT&T’s exclusive deal with Apple is coming to an end, but really they boil down to one: it would seem that this exclusivity no longer sufficiently benefits both parties to keep it going. While I have no numbers to back this up, it is easy to imagine that AT&T must be seeing diminishing returns on subscribers who are switching solely for this very expensive iPhone exclusive. And given recent research on the relatively massive data consumption by iPhone users compared to users of other smartphones, it is doubtful that AT&T’s already stressed network could handle significantly more iPhone subscribers, particularly as slower old iPhones are weeded out and faster (more data hungry) ones take their place.
But perhaps the more compelling argument for the end of Apple phone exclusivity is Apple’s own interest in going multi-network. When Apple first released the iPhone, there was nothing comparable and so the game was changed with the iPhone, continuing with the 3G and 3Gs. And not only did the landscape change completely, but in time so have Apple’s competitors. Where there was previously no product to offer serious competition to the iPhone, we’ve recently seen a number of solid offerings from Google, Palm, and even Windows, particularly in the last year.
Apple doesn’t want you picking up a Google phone on Verizon or any network. They don’t want you to realize that even Microsoft is bringing cool new innovations to the smart phone market. But you will realize this if you’re one of the over 90 million subscribers on Verizon’s network who wants a sexy smartphone but can’t get the iPhone due to an exclusivity deal with AT&T. Apple doesn’t want this. They want consumers consuming in their App Store, not someone else’s. They want developers to favor their App Store and they want to continue to dominate the market they re-shaped and re-created. The fact of the matter is that if Verizon subscribers can’t get iPhones, then they’ll simply get other phones. And while many of them might have preferred iPhones, most of them will be relatively happy with something from Google.
My guess is that we’ll see a sexy new iPhone announced for AT&T only in June and then, once the buying frenzy has subsided somewhat, an Apple phone will be at least announced for Verizon by the end of the year.
“An Apple phone?” you ask. “Don’t you mean the iPhone?” Maybe, but not necessarily. Perhaps the iPhone as we know it will come to other networks, or perhaps the offering will be a cousin, like an iPod Shuffle or and iPod Nano are cousins to the iPod Touch and the iPod Classic.